(AsiaGameHub) –   Macau’s casino industry reported gross gaming revenue of MOP22.62 billion ($2.8 billion) for March, a 15% increase compared to March 2025, as per data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ). The figure represents a 9.8% rise from February, driven by strong tourist numbers and gaming activity over the Lunar New Year holiday period.

For the first quarter, spanning January to March, the sector’s GGR reached MOP65.87 billion, marking a 14.3% year-on-year gain against Q1 2025. While this quarterly result remains 13.5% below the 2019 level, CBRE Equity Research suggests that if current positive momentum holds, the full-year 2026 GGR could expand by 8.3% year-on-year. This projection surpasses the firm’s earlier forecast of 6% growth.

Economic stimulus boosts consumer confidence

In a Monday research note, CBRE analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh linked the positive performance to vigorous tourism and Macau’s ongoing efforts to develop its base mass market. They also cited a more stable economic environment in China.

Beijing established an annual GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% in March. Public policy analyst Zhu Fangfei described this as a stable shift “from high-speed growth to … high-quality development.” According to DeCree and Marsh, “the Chinese consumer continues to benefit from targeted stimulus.”

They further noted that for the majority of operators, “the magnitude of topline growth in first quarter 2026 was enough to support continued EBITDA growth … even [for] those that might have given up some GGR share in exchange for profitability.” They also observed that operating expenses and “competitive pressures” among the six major casino concessionaires are “stabilising.”

“We expect promotional activity to remain elevated but stabilise in full-year 2026,” the analysts wrote. They added that an increase in operational expenditures “should also normalise as many concession-related opex investments are now baked into the cost structure.”

Macau banks on mass play, entertainment

Continued investments in entertainment offerings in Macau “should attract additional visitation, particularly from the base mass segment that has yet to fully recover,” the investment firm stated.

This observation matches a Macao News report highlighting that March is typically a slower month for tourism outside of holiday periods. Casino operators have counteracted this seasonal lull by hosting major entertainment acts. On March 28, the K-pop group ATEEZ performed to a full house at the 14,000-seat Venetian Arena. That same evening, Taiwanese-American rapper Mark Tuan drew over 5,000 attendees to the Studio City Event Center.

Operators diversify their entertainment lineup to appeal to a broader audience beyond just younger patrons. For instance, Citi analysts noted that in one month last summer, concerts by Korean Cantopop star Jacky Cheung were associated with a 16% rise in premium play and a 36% increase in the average wager at Galaxy Macau.

2026 outlook still short of pre-Covid benchmark

CBRE’s forecast of 8.6% GGR growth is more than twice as high as the more cautious estimate from Macau’s government. Local authorities have set an annual GGR target of MOP236 billion, which is 3.5% above a revised 2025 goal of MOP228 billion.

Separately, S&P Global anticipates “slow but steady” growth between 3% and 7% as Macau transitions “from a post-pandemic rebound to a more maturity-driven phase.” Jefferies projects annual growth of 5.3%. Nonetheless, none of these forecasts predict that GGR will top the MOP292.45 billion recorded in 2019.